Epidemiological Characteristics of Community-Acquired Pneumonia during the Covid-19 Epidemic in the Russian Federation

COVID-19 belongs to the group of acute respiratory infections and it is often complicated with pneumonia. This study aimed to investigate manifestations of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) epidemic process during the COVID-19 epidemic in the Russian Federation. We analyzed the official statistical data reporting the incidence of CAP in the Russian Federation in 2013-2020 and incidence of COVID-19 as registered in March-July 2020. The mean average annual CAP incidence rate that we calculated and the 2020 CAP incidence prediction allowed assessing the relationship between CAP and COVID-19. It is shown that the long-term dynamics of the incidence of CAP in the Russian Federation is characterized by a pronounced upward trend with an average annual growth rate of 6.4%. The share of adult population among the CAP cases is the largest;on average, it is 64.7% (95% CI [63.1;66.3]). In 2020, against the background of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, the discrepancy between the actual incidence of CAP and the predicted figures reached and exceeded 558% (in July 2020). As the COVID-19 epidemic developed, the incidence of CAP was registered to increase. There was established a direct and significant correlation between the incidence of CAP and COVID-19 (rxy = 0.932;p <0.01).Copyright © 2022 Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproduction. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological characteristics of four times of community transmission of COVID-19 in Hebei

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of community transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by four imported cases in Hebei Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of four community-transmitted COVID-19 outbreaks reported in the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 in Hebei Province. Results From January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, four community-transmitted COVID-19 outbreaks caused by imported COVID-19 occurred in Hebei Province, respectively related of Hubei (Wuhan) Province, Beijing Xinfadi market, Overseas cases and Ejina banner of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Total of 1 656 cases (1 420 confirmed cases and 236 asymptomatic cases) were reported, including 375 cases in phase A (From January 22 to April 16, 2020), and phase B (from June 14 to June 24, 2020) 27 cases were reported, with 1 116 cases reported in the third phase (Phase C, January 2 to February 14, 2021), and 138 cases reported in the fourth phase (Phase D, October 23 to November 14, 2021). The 1 656 cases were distributed in 104 counties of 11 districts (100.00%), accounting for 60.46% of the total number of counties in the province. There were 743 male cases and 913 female cases, with a male to female ratio of 0.81:1. The minimum age was 13 days, the maximum age was 94 years old, and the average age (median) was 40.3 years old. The incidence was 64.01% between 30 and 70 years old. Farmers and students accounted for 54.41% and 14.73% of the total cases respectively. Of the 1 420 confirmed cases, 312 were mild cases, accounting for 21.97%;Common type 1 095 cases (77.11%);There was 1 severe case and 12 critical cases, accounting for 0.07% and 0.85%, respectively. 7 patients died from 61.0 to 85.7 years old. The mean (median) time from onset to diagnosis was 1.9 days (0-31 days), and the mean (median) time of hospital stay was 15 days (1.5-56 days). Conclusions Four times in Hebei province COVID-19 outbreak in scale, duration, population, epidemic and type of input source, there are some certain difference, but there are some common characteristics, such as the outbreak occurs mainly during the legal holidays or after starting and spreading epidemic area is mainly in rural areas, aggregation epidemic is the main mode of transmission, etc. To this end, special efforts should be made to strengthen the management of people moving around during holidays, and strengthen the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures in places with high concentration of people. To prevent the spread of the epidemic, we will step up surveillance in rural areas, farmers' markets, medical workers and other key areas and groups, and ensure early detection and timely response.Copyright © 2022 China Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological characteristics of paediatric Omicron infection during the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection during March-May in 2022 in Shanghai, China.

This study aims to understand the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the paediatric population during the outbreak of the Omicron variant in Shanghai. We retrospectively analysed the population-based epidemiological characteristics and clinical outcome of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection in children in Minhang District, Shanghai, based on the citywide surveillance system during the outbreak period in 2022 (March to May). During this time, a total of 63,969 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were notified in Minhang District, out of which 4,652 (7.3%) were children and adolescents <18 years. The incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections in children was 153 per 10,000. Of all paediatric cases, 50% reported to be clinically symptomatic within 1-3 days after PCR confirmation by parents or themselves, with 36.3% and 18.9% of paediatric cases reporting fever and cough. Also, 58.4% of paediatric cases had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 52.1% had received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccination. Our findings are informative for the implementation of appropriate measures to protect children from the threat of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Epidemiological characteristics of overseas imported COVID-19 cases into China: A scoping literature review.

Previous studies investigating the characteristics of imported cases were mostly limited to a certain province/city or a specific sub-group during a certain period with a small sample size, which may not provide an overall picture of the characteristics of imported cases. In this scoping literature review, we comprehensively synthesized the epidemiological characteristics of overseas imported COVID-19 cases into China by retrieving six literature databases, with aims to provide implications for more targeted control, prevention, and medical treatment of this disease. After dropping duplicates and reviewing titles, abstracts, and full-texts, 50 articles were included in the review finally, including 26 (52%) articles in English and 24 (48%) articles in Chinese. According to the type of data sources, the 50 studies were divided into three categories: 13 (26%) articles using data sourced from the Chinese Infectious Diseases Online Reporting System, 15 (30%) articles using data from the websites of national/local health departments, and 22 (44%) articles using hospital admission data. Most of the overseas imported COVID-19 cases were young and middle-aged Chinese students and businessmen returning from the United States, Europe, and some neighboring countries. Airport routine health screening measures could not identify COVID-cases effectively, although scheduled multiple nucleic acid tests were required before boarding. Almost all imported cases were identified during the hotel quarantine period. Although a large proportion of imported cases were asymptomatic or with mild symptoms in the published literature, they may be due to participant selection bias. The exact proportion of asymptomatic cases may need to be further investigated especially through population-based large-scale studies.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Among Hospitalized Children With Acute Respiratory Tract Infections From 2014 to 2022 in a Hospital in Hubei Province, China: Longitudinal Surveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies characterizing the epidemic trend of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Hubei Province are scarce. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to depict the dynamics of the RSV epidemic among hospitalized children with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) during 2014 to 2022 in the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Hubei Province and investigate the influence of the 2-child policy and the COVID-19 pandemic on RSV prevalence. METHODS: The medical records and testing results of hospitalized children with ARTI from January 2014 to June 2022 were extracted. Nasopharyngeal samples were tested with direct immunofluorescence assay. Detection rates of RSV were categorized according to the diagnosis of patients: (1) overall, (2) upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), and (3) lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). Poisson regression models were used to investigate the association between RSV detection rate and age, gender, or diagnosis. The detection rates of RSV before and after the implementation of the universal 2-child policy were compared using a Poisson regression model. Multiple comparisons of RSV detection rates were conducted among 3 stages of the COVID-19 pandemic using chi-square tests. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average was performed to predict RSV behaviors from February 2020 to June 2020 under the assumption of a non-COVID-19 scenario. RESULTS: Among 75,128 hospitalized children with ARTI, 11.1% (8336/75,128) were RSV-positive. Children aged <1 year had higher detection rates than older children (4204/26,498, 15.9% vs 74/5504, 1.3%; P<.001), and children with LRTI had higher detection rates than children with URTI (7733/53,145, 14.6% vs 603/21,983, 2.7%; P<.001). Among all the children, a clear seasonal pattern of the RSV epidemic was observed before 2021. Most of the highest detection rates were concentrated between December and February. The yearly detection rate of RSV remained at a relatively low level (about 8%) from 2014 to 2017, then increased to 12% and above from 2018. The highest monthly detection rate was in December 2018 (539/1493, 36.1%), and the highest yearly rate was in 2021 (1372/9328, 14.7%). There was a moderate increase in the RSV detection rate after the 2-child policy was implemented (before: 860/10,446, 8.2% vs after: 4920/43,916, 11.2%; P<.001). The largest increase, by 5.83%, occurred in children aged <1 year. The RSV epidemic level decreased sharply in the short term after the COVID-19 outbreak (detection rate before: 1600/17,010, 9.4% vs after: 32/1135, 2.8%; P<.001). The largest decrease, by 12.0%, occurred in children aged <1 year, but a rebounding epidemic occurred after 2020 (680/5744, 11.8%; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Children have been experiencing increased prevalence of RSV since 2018 based on surveillance from a hospital in Hubei Province with a large sample size. The 2-child policy might have increased the RSV prevalence, and the COVID-19 epidemic had a temporary inhibitory effect on RSV transmission. Vaccines against RSV are urgently needed.

Household transmission dynamics of COVID-19 among residents of Delhi, India: a prospective case-ascertained study.

Objective: The aim of this study was to observe the secondary infection rate and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 among household contacts, and their associations with various factors across four dimensions of interaction. Methods: This was a case-ascertained study among unvaccinated household contacts of a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case in New Delhi between December 2020 and July 2021. For this study, 99 index cases and their 316 household contacts were interviewed and sampled (blood and oro-nasal swab) on days 1, 7, 14, and 28. Results: The secondary infection rate among unvaccinated household contacts was 44.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39.1-50.1). The predictors of secondary infection among individual contact levels were: being female (odds ratio (OR) 2.13), increasing age (OR 1.01), symptoms at baseline (OR 3.39), and symptoms during follow-up (OR 3.18). Among index cases, age of the primary case (OR 1.03) and symptoms during follow-up (OR 6.29) were significantly associated with secondary infection. Among household-level and contact patterns, having more rooms (OR 4.44) and taking care of the index case (OR 2.02) were significantly associated with secondary infection. Conclusion: A high secondary infection rate highlights the need to adopt strict measures and advocate COVID-19-appropriate behaviors. A targeted approach for higher-risk household contacts would efficiently limit infections among susceptible contacts.

Transmission Dynamics and Epidemiological Characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant - Hunan Province, China, 2021.

What is already known about this topic?: Little is known about the epidemiology, natural history, and transmission patterns of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant. Monitoring the evolution of viral fitness of SARS-CoV-2 in the host population is key for preparedness and response planning. What is added by this report?: We analyzed a successfully contained local outbreak of Delta that took place in Hunan, China, and provided estimates of time-to-key event periods, infectiousness over time, and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission for a still poorly understood variant. What are the implications for public health practice?: Our findings simultaneously shed light on both the characteristics of the Delta variant, by identifying key age groups, risk factors, and transmission pathways, and planning a future response effort against SARS-CoV-2.

Does COVID-19 increase risk of stroke?

Aim: In this study, it was aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics and frequency of patients diagnosed with stroke in Kayseri City Hospital in the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period and during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigate whether COVID-19 increases the frequency of stroke. The true relationship between COVID-19 and the incidence of stroke has yet to be determined. Materials and Methods: A meta-analysis study reported that 1.4% (95%CI: 1.0-1.9) of 108,571 patients with COVID-19 developed acute cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Additionally, although the number of hospital admissions due to clinical presentation of suspected stroke decreased due to the pandemic, it has been suggested that the COVID-19 infection itself may cause a stroke. Results: In the literature, there have been reports of patient groups who developed ischemic stroke 1-2 weeks after diagnosis with typical COVID-19 symptoms, as well as patient groups who developed symptoms such as fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath during follow-up with ischemic stroke and who were subsequently diagnosed with COVID-19. It was observed that patients presented with sudden onset loss of strength showing side without typical COVID-19 symptoms (such as cough, fever), and thoracic CT scans of these patients in the later period revealed pulmonary findings. Conclusion: In other words, COVID-19 patients may present with neurological symptoms such as acute cerebrovascular disease as the first symptom. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiological characteristics of four times of community transmission of COVID-19 in Hebei

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of community transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by four imported cases in Hebei Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of four community-transmitted COVID-19 outbreaks reported in the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 in Hebei Province. Results From January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, four community-transmitted COVID-19 outbreaks caused by imported COVID-19 occurred in Hebei Province, respectively related of Hubei (Wuhan) Province, Beijing Xinfadi market, Overseas cases and Ejina banner of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Total of 1 656 cases (1 420 confirmed cases and 236 asymptomatic cases) were reported, including 375 cases in phase A (From January 22 to April 16, 2020), and phase B (from June 14 to June 24, 2020) 27 cases were reported, with 1 116 cases reported in the third phase (Phase C, January 2 to February 14, 2021), and 138 cases reported in the fourth phase (Phase D, October 23 to November 14, 2021). The 1 656 cases were distributed in 104 counties of 11 districts (100.00%), accounting for 60.46% of the total number of counties in the province. There were 743 male cases and 913 female cases, with a male to female ratio of 0.81∶1. The minimum age was 13 days, the maximum age was 94 years old, and the average age (median) was 40.3 years old. The incidence was 64.01% between 30 and 70 years old. Farmers and students accounted for 54.41% and 14.73% of the total cases respectively. Of the 1 420 confirmed cases, 312 were mild cases, accounting for 21.97%;Common type 1 095 cases (77.11%);There was 1 severe case and 12 critical cases, accounting for 0.07% and 0.85%, respectively. 7 patients died from 61.0 to 85.7 years old. The mean (median) time from onset to diagnosis was 1.9 days (0-31 days), and the mean (median) time of hospital stay was 15 days (1.5-56 days). Conclusions Four times in Hebei province COVID-19 outbreak in scale, duration, population, epidemic and type of input source, there are some certain difference, but there are some common characteristics, such as the outbreak occurs mainly during the legal holidays or after starting and spreading epidemic area is mainly in rural areas, aggregation epidemic is the main mode of transmission, etc. To this end, special efforts should be made to strengthen the management of people moving around during holidays, and strengthen the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures in places with high concentration of people. To prevent the spread of the epidemic, we will step up surveillance in rural areas, farmers′ markets, medical workers and other key areas and groups, and ensure early detection and timely response. © 2022 China Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of vaccinated COVID-19 patients: A meta-analysis and systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: With the global epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), vaccination rates are increasing globally. This study evaluated the relevant clinical manifestations of vaccinated COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We searched carefully in 11 databases such as PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Ovid, China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database, Wan Fang Data, Sinomed, VIP Database, and Reading Showing Database up to 26 March 2022. To search for articles that have described the characteristics of vaccinated patients including epidemiological and clinical symptoms. Statistical analysis of the extracted data using STATA 14.0. RESULTS: A total of 58 articles and 263,708 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients were included. Most of the patients in the vaccinated group had more asymptomatic infection and fewer severe illnesses. There were significant differences in ethnicity, and strain infected with COVID-19, and comorbidities (hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obesity, kidney disease, immunocompromised, cardiovascular disease, and tumor) and symptoms (fever, cough, gastrointestinal symptoms, neurological symptoms, and dysgeusia/anosmia) between vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. Oxygen support, use of steroid, days in hospital, hospital treatment, ICU treatment, death, and poor prognosis were also significantly different. CONCLUSION: Compared with the vaccinated group, patients in the unvaccinated group had a more severe clinical manifestations. Vaccines are also protective for infected people.

Clinical course of COVID-19 in hospitalized children of Ukraine in different pandemic periods.

Background: The coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pandemic has seen a progressive increase in childhood morbidity worldwide. Continuous mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus causes the wave-like course of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is characterized by an undulating course and the predominance of different variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are many reports that the clinical picture may vary depending on the circulating strain of the virus [7-11, 13-16]. Based on this, we decided to analyze and evaluate the presence of a pattern between the clinical and epidemic COVID-19 characteristics and the strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus prevailing locally. The aim of the work: To study the effects of various strains of SARS-CoV-2 on the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of pediatric patients; to determine the regularity between the severity of the disease and the circulating strain of SARS-CoV-2. Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of 945 case stories of COVID-19 disease in children who were hospitalized at the infectious diseases hospital (Kyiv, Ukraine) in the period from June 2020 to February 2022 (corresponding to a period of four waves of different SARS-CoV-2 strains). We investigated epidemiological and clinical features, as well as laboratory and instrumental parameters, comparing four waves of the disease. Results and Conclusions: A regularity between the wave of COVID-19 and the severity of the disease was found. The third wave seemed to be the most severe, due to the increase in the frequency of complications, concomitant pathology, clinical symptoms and the level of mortality. The timing of this outbreak matched with the circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 delta-variant and correlated with an increase in hospitalization rates in Ukraine.

Study on epidemiological investigation method for family clustering epidemic for a case with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Objective To analyze the transmission characteristics of family clustering of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a town in Tianjin, and to study new epidemiological investigation method applied for the epidemic. Methods The field epidemiological method was applied to investigate confirmed, suspected cases and close contacts of COVID-19, and this clustering epidemic was analyze;and real-time fluorescence PCR (RT-PCR) assay was used for 2019-nCoV nucleic acid testing. Results A total of 11 confirmed cases and 1 suspected case, with three generations of transmission and median generation interval of 6 (2-26) days were involved in current clustering epidemic, the confirmed cases were infectious at the end of the incubation period, the recurrence rate within the families was 33. 33% (19/57), and the epidemiological investigation information acquired through case narration were deviated compared with the trace investigated by police force and the information provided by close contacts. Conclusion The COVID-19 can cause the family clustering spread, and it may infectious at the end of the incubation period. It is necessary to strengthen the trace and management of close contacts during clustering epidemics, and multiple methods adopted making for acquiring epidemiological investigation information. © 2022, Editorial Department of Medical Pest Control. All rights reserved.

The Omicron Variant of the Sars-Cov-2 Virus As the Dominant Agent of a New Risk of Disease amid the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Over the two years that have passed since the WHO announced on March 11, 2020, a pandemic of the new coronavirus disease COVID-19, more than 460 million cases of the disease have been detected in the world, of which more than five million have been fatal. During the natural evolution of the COVID-19 pathogen, dominant variants emerge that account for most new infections. The WHO constantly monitors coronavirus mutations that potentially pose an epidemiological danger. Currently, the WHO divides modified variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into variants of concern (VOC) and variants of interest (VOI). The WHO-designated group of variants of concern includes potentially the most dangerous lines, which are characterized by a complex of new properties. This group also includes the Omicron variant, which has become the dominant agent of the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this work is to analyze the characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain, the dominant agent of the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed mechanism of origin of the Omicron variant, its geographical distribution, the features of the disease caused by it, and the distinguishing features from diseases caused by the Delta variant and the original Wuhan strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, mutations of the Omicron variant compared to the parent strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the genetic variability of the Omicron variant, and the epidemiological characteristics of the disease it causes are considered. Particular attention is paid to evaluation of the preventive and therapeutic effectiveness of the existing medical means of protection against COVID-19 in relation to the Omicron strain.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during different pandemic periods in Moscow

Background. The incidence of COVID-19 novel coronavirus infection has a wave-like pattern with surges in new cases followed by declines. Viral mutations, changes in viral properties, and new strains continue to emerge and are regularly reported. The aim of the study is to present a comparative analysis of clinical and epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during different periods of the coronavirus infection pandemic in Moscow. Materials and methods. A two-center, retrospective observational epidemiological study was performed using medical records of patients hospitalized with the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 in Moscow from March 2020 to March 2022 (34,354 patients). Results. Within 2 years of the pandemic, there were significant differences in the age structure of hospitalized patients. During the early months (March–June 2020) of the pandemic, age groups of 18–45 and 46–65 year-olds accounted for higher percentages of hospitalizations. Later on (July 2020 – February 2021), the proportion of older age groups demonstrated an upward trend. From spring 2021 (the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 delta strain) to March 2022 (dominance of the omicron strain), the proportion of hospitalized working-age adults increased once again. The proportion of severe and critically severe cases among the patients hospitalized during different periods remained at steady levels: 7.7% (6.6–8.8%) and 5.5% (4.4–6.6%), respectively. The highest death rates were observed during the delta strain surge, while the lowest death rates were reported for the omicron strain. Throughout the pandemic, the older age and chronic diseases remained risk factors contributing to the severity of the disease and adverse outcomes. Conclusion. The emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 causing a shift of the need for hospitalization towards younger age groups, the persistent high rates of severe cases and death rates among people of retirement age are pressing for the unfailing readiness for implementing preventive and epidemic control measures focusing on the above groups of population. © 2022, Central Research Institute for Epidemiology. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the close contact management mode and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Chengdu, China.

With the development of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic and the increase in cases, as a potential source of infection, the risk of close contact has gradually increased. However, few studies have analyzed the tracking and management of cross-regional personnel. In this study, we hope to understand the effectiveness and feasibility of existing close contact management measures in Chengdu, so as to provide a reference for further prevention and control of the epidemic. The close contact management mode and epidemiological characteristics of 40,425 close contacts from January 22, 2020, to March 1, 2022, in Chengdu, China, were analyzed. The relationship with index cases was mainly co-passengers (57.58%) and relatives (7.20%), and the frequency of contact was mainly occasional contact (70.39%). A total of 400 (0.99%) close contacts were converted into cases, which were mainly found in the first and second nucleic acid tests (53.69%), and the contact mode was mainly by sharing transportation (63.82%). In terms of close contact management time, both the supposed ((11.93 ± 3.00) days vs. (11.92 ± 7.24) days) and actual ((13.74 ± 17.47) days vs. (12.60 ± 4.35) days) isolation times in Chengdu were longer than those of the outer cities (P < 0.001). For the local clustered epidemics in Chengdu, the relationship with indexed cases was mainly colleagues (12.70%). The tracing and management of close contacts is a two-way management measure that requires cooperation among departments. Enhancing existing monitoring and response capabilities can control the spread of the epidemic to a certain extent.

Application of the ARIMA Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Anhui During COVID-19 Pandemic from 2021 to 2022.

Objective: Forecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis is important for the rational allocation of health resources. In this study, we predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis by establishing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and providing support for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Registered tuberculosis(TB) cases from January 2013 to December 2020 in Anhui province were analysed using traditional descriptive epidemiological methods. Then we used the monthly incidence rate of TB from January 2013 through June 2020 to construct ARIMA model, and used the incidence rate from July 2020 to December 2020 to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. Ljung Box test, Akaike's information criterion(AICc), Bayesian information criterion(BIC) and Realtive error were used to evaluate the model fitting and forecasting effect, Finally, the optimal model was used to forecast the expected monthly incidence of tuberculosis for 2021 and 2022 to learn about the incidence trend. Results: A total of 255,656 TB cases were registered. The reported rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2013 and lowest in 2020. The peak incidence was in March, Tongling (71.97/100,000), Chizhou (59.93/100,000), and Huainan (58.36/100,000) had the highest number of cases. The ratio of male to female incidence was 2.59:1, with the largest proportion of people being between 66 and 75 years old. The main occupation of patients was farmer. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model was the optimal model to forecast the incidence trend of TB. Conclusion: Tongling, Chizhou, and Huainan should strengthen measures for TB. In particular, the government should pay more attention on elderly people to prevent tuberculosis infections. The rate of TB patient registration and reporting has decreased under the pandemic of COVID-19. The ARIMA model can be a useful tool for predicting future TB cases.

Relatively rapid evolution rates of SARS-CoV-2 spike gene at the primary stage of massive vaccination.

A series of stringent non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions were implemented to contain the pandemic but the pandemic continues. Moreover, vaccination breakthrough infection and reinfection in convalescent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have been reported. Further, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants emerged with mutations in spike (S) gene, the target of most current vaccines. Importantly, the mutations exhibit a trend of immune escape from the vaccination. Herein the scientific question that if the vaccination drives genetic or antigenic drifts of SARS-CoV-2 remains elusive. We performed correlation analyses to uncover the impacts of wide vaccination on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. In addition, we investigated the evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 under immune pressure by utilizing the Bayesian phylodynamic inferences and the lineage entropy calculation respectively. We found that vaccination coverage was negatively related to the infections, severe cases, and deaths of COVID-19 respectively. With the increasing vaccination coverage, the lineage diversity of SARS-CoV-2 dampened, but the rapid mutation rates of the S gene were identified, and the vaccination could be one of the explanations for driving mutations in S gene. Moreover, new epidemics resurged in several countries with high vaccination coverage, questioning their current pandemic control strategies. Hence, integrated vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions are critical to control the pandemic. Furthermore, novel vaccine preparation should enhance its capabilities to curb both disease severity and infection possibility.

Clinical epidemiological characterization of positive cases for COVID-19 in Villa Clara. March-November 2020

COVID-19 is a new disease with high morbidity and mortality in the world and great clinical variability in its behavior. With the aim of characterizing clinical and epidemiological variables in patients positive for COVID-19 in the province of Villa Clara, a descriptive study of positive clinical cases to the real-time Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction test was carried out. from the province of Villa Clara (317 patients), from March to November 2020. The registry of PCR tests of the Provincial Laboratory of Microbiology was used and the epidemiological surveys were reviewed. Female patients, the age group from 40 to 59 years and residents in the municipality of Santa Clara prevailed. Most of the patients were asymptomatic at diagnosis. The most frequent symptoms were cough and fever. Arterial hypertension and Diabetes Mellitus were the comorbidities that most accompanied the disease.

Epidemiological characteristics of 17 imported patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. / 17ä¾‹æ–°åž‹å† çŠ¶ç— æ¯’Omicronå˜å¼‚æ ªå¢ƒå¤–è¾“å ¥æ„ŸæŸ“è€ çš„æµè¡Œç— å­¦ç‰¹å¾.

OBJECTIVES: With the continuous generation of new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pressure of epidemic prevention and control continues to increase in China. Omicron with stronger infectiousness, immune escape ability and repeated infection ability spread to many countries and regions around the world in a short period of time. China has also successively reported cases of imported Omicron infections. This study aims to understand the epidemiological characteristics of Omicron variant via analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of imported patients with Omicron in Hunan Province, and to provide reference for preventing and controlling the imported epidemics. METHODS: The clinical data of imported patients with coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to Hunan Province from December 16 to December 31, 2021 were retrospectively collected. The epidemiological information, general information, clinical classification, clinical symptoms, vaccination status, and lung CT were analyzed. Nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples were collected. Virus nucleic acid was detected by magnetic beads method using SARS-CoV-2 detection kit. Ct values of ORF1ab gene and N gene were compared between asymptomatic infected patients and confirmed patients. The specific IgM and IgG antibodies were detected by chemiluminescence assay using SARS-CoV-2 IgM test kit and SARS-CoV-2 IgG test kit, respectively. Ct values of IgM and IgG antibodies were compared between asymptomatic infected patients and confirmed patients. RESULTS: Seventeen patients with Omicron variant infection were treated in Hunan, including 15 confirmed patients (5 common type and 10 mild type) and 2 asymptomatic infection patients. The 17 patients were all Chinese, they were generally young, and 16 were male. There were 9 patients with diseases. Of them 3 patients had respiratory diseases. All 17 patients had completed the whole process of vaccination, but only one person received a booster shot of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. The clinical manifestations of the patients were mild, mainly including dry/painful/itchy throat, cough, and fatigue. The total protein and creatine in the asymptomatic infection and confirmed cases infected with Omicron variant were all within the normal range, but other biochemical indicators were abnormal. There were the significant differences in C-reactive protein and fibrinogen between asymptomatic infection and confirmed patients (both P<0.05). There were more patients with elevated C-reactive protein in confirmed patients than without confirmed ones. The detection rate of specific IgM and IgG antibodies on admission was 100%, and there was no significant difference in the specific antibody levels between asymptomatic infection and confirmed patients (P>0.05). There were no significant differences in Ct values of ORF1ab gene and N gene (21.35 and 18.39 vs 19.22 and 15.67) between the asymptomatic infection and the confirmed patients (both P>0.05). Only 3 patients had abnormal lung CT, showing a small amount of patchy and cord-like shadows. One of them had no abnormality on admission but had pulmonary lesions and migratory phenomenon after admission. CONCLUSIONS: The patients with Omicron variant tend to be young people and have milder clinical symptoms, but the viral load is high and the infectiveness is strong. Therefore, the timely identification and effective isolation and control for asymptomatic infections and confirmed patients with mild symptoms are extremely important. In terms of epidemic prevention and control, the government still needs to strengthen the risk control of overseas input, adhere to normalized epidemic prevention and control measures, to effectively control the source of infection, cut off the route of transmission, and protect vulnerable people.

Evaluating the Impact of Traveling on COVID-19 Prevalence and Predicting the New Confirmed Cases According to the Travel Rate Using Machine Learning: A Case Study in Iran

COVID-19 which has spread in Iran from February 19, 2020, infected 1, 550, 142 people and killed 59, 264 people until February 18, 2021. The immediate suggested solution to prevent the spread of this virus was to avoid traveling around. Unfortunately, on many occasions, this restriction was not enforced or respected by the citizens. Thus, the goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of traveling on the COVID-19 prevalence by measuring the correlation between traveling data and new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran. The data consists of the daily traffic between Iran's provinces, air traffic, and daily COVID-19 new confirmed cases. In the first step, the importance analysis was used to determine the impact of different kinds of traveling on the COVID-19 spread. In the second step, KNN, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to predict the effect of traveling on the number of new COVID-19 cases. Although the available data was very coarse and there were no details of inner-cities commute, an R-squared of 0.89 and 0.86 on the train and test datasets was achieved respectively, showing a positive correlation between the number of travels between states and the new confirmed cases of COVID-19. It was also shown that there was an 8-day incubation period. Consequently, by considering this period the voting regressor model reached 0.92 and 0.98 R2 scores for test and train datasets respectively. The result confirms that one of the best ways to avoid the spread of the virus is limiting or eliminating traveling around. © 2021 IEEE.